COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: status, distribution and forecasts

	Linear	Semilog	Growth	Spline without knots	Spline with knots	ARIMA
(Intercept)	309.718 ****	-61.807	4.679 ****	-4.427	79.837
	(34.859)	(93.889)	(0.140)	(62.400)	(153.383)
Day	0.105		0.001 ***
	(0.116)		(0.000)
log(Day)		75.814 ****
		(17.539)
bs(Day, knots = NULL)1				518.671 ***
				(180.305)
bs(Day, knots = NULL)2				924.409 ****
				(114.445)
bs(Day, knots = NULL)3				-73.495
				(98.521)
bs(Day, knots = c(30, 247, 420))1					-238.760
					(189.563)
bs(Day, knots = c(30, 247, 420))2					623.211 ****
					(163.042)
bs(Day, knots = c(30, 247, 420))3					-176.185
					(190.514)
bs(Day, knots = c(30, 247, 420))4					1237.844 ****
					(169.846)
bs(Day, knots = c(30, 247, 420))5					-925.546 ****
					(178.335)
bs(Day, knots = c(30, 247, 420))6					693.659 ****
					(178.836)
ar1						0.237
						(0.106)
ar2						-0.841
						(0.088)
ar3						-0.127
						(0.107)
ar4						-0.413
						(0.047)
ar5						-0.448
						(0.055)
ma1						-0.945
						(0.110)
ma2						1.038
						(0.162)
ma3						-0.456
						(0.149)
ma4						0.366
						(0.093)
nobs	521	521	521	521	521	520
r.squared	0.002	0.035	0.013	0.189	0.374
adj.r.squared	-0.000	0.033	0.011	0.185	0.367
sigma	397.258	390.607	1.601	358.640	316.081	140.204
statistic	0.830	18.685	6.910	40.269	51.188
p.value	0.363	0.000	0.009	0.000	0.000
df	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000
logLik	-3856.235	-3847.437	-983.504	-3801.948	-3734.618	-3304.902
AIC	7718.469	7700.875	1973.009	7613.895	7485.236	6629.804
BIC	7731.236	7713.642	1985.776	7635.174	7519.282	6672.342
deviance	81905514.761	79185735.475	1330.515	66497947.233	51352160.074
df.residual	519.000	519.000	519.000	517.000	514.000
nobs.1	521.000	521.000	521.000	521.000	521.000	520.000
**** p < 0.001; *** p < 0.01; ** p < 0.05; * p < 0.1.

	Linear	Semilog	Growth	Spline with knots	Spline without knots	Smooth spline	ARIMA
Absolute Error	150000	150000	170000	120000	140000	39000	42000
Absolute Percent Error	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf
Accuracy	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Adjusted R Square	-0.00033	0.033	0.011	0.37	0.18	0	0
Akaike’s Information Criterion AIC	7700	7700	2000	7500	7600	0	6600
Allen’s Prediction Sum-Of-Squares (PRESS, P-Square)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Area under the ROC curve (AUC)	0.0087	0.0087	0.0087	0.14	0.04	0.0087	0.02
Average Precision at k	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bias	0.0000000000000089	-0.000000000000035	330	-0.0000000000000047	-0.000000000000036	0.00000000000011	2.5
Brier score	200000	200000	300000	100000	100000	20000	20000
Classification Error	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
F1 Score	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
fScore	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
GINI Coefficient	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.8	0.6	1	1
kappa statistic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Log Loss	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf
Mallow’s cp	2	2	2	7	4	0	0
Matthews Correlation Coefficient	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mean Log Loss	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf
Mean Absolute Error	290	280	330	230	260	74	81
Mean Absolute Percent Error	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf
Mean Average Precision at k	0	0	0	0	0	0.2	0
Mean Absolute Scaled Error	3	2.9	3.4	2.3	2.7	0.76	0.84
Median Absolute Error	250	220	180	190	220	34	42
Mean Squared Error	160000	150000	270000	99000	130000	18000	19000
Mean Squared Log Error	3.2	NaN	13	NaN	NaN	0.28	0.28
Model turning point error	264	264	264	241	265	248	296
Negative Predictive Value	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Percent Bias	-Inf	NaN	-Inf	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
Positive Predictive Value	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Precision	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
R Square	0.0016	0.035	0.013	0.37	0.19	0	0
Relative Absolute Error	1	0.98	1.2	0.79	0.9	0.26	0.28
Recall	310	29	4.7	9.7	10	-0.18	0.45
Root Mean Squared Error	400	390	520	310	360	140	140
Root Mean Squared Log Error	1.8	NaN	3.6	NaN	NaN	0.53	0.53
Root Relative Squared Error	1	0.98	1.3	0.79	0.9	0.34	0.35
Relative Squared Error	1	0.97	1.7	0.63	0.81	0.12	0.12
Schwarz’s Bayesian criterion BIC	7700	7700	2000	7500	7600	0	6700
Sensitivity	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
specificity	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Squared Error	82000000	79000000	140000000	51000000	66000000	9600000	10000000
Squared Log Error	1700	NaN	6700	NaN	NaN	150	150
Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error	0.93	0.93	1.8	0.89	0.93	0.35	0.41
Sum of Squared Errors	82000000	79000000	140000000	51000000	66000000	9600000	10000000
True negative rate	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
True positive rate	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

	Spline without knots	Spline with knots	ARIMA	Quardratic polynomial	Essembled based on weight	Essembled based on summed weight
(Intercept)	-4.427	-5.445		-73.079	63.252	5.538
	(62.400)	(56.636)		(47.384)	(58.044)	(12.629)
bs(Day, knots = NULL)1	518.671 ***
	(180.305)
bs(Day, knots = NULL)2	924.409 ****
	(114.445)
bs(Day, knots = NULL)3	-73.495
	(98.521)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)1		12.816
		(109.491)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)2		5.594
		(70.929)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)3		856.945 ****
		(81.316)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)4		153.515 **
		(69.095)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)5		241.337 ***
		(75.755)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)6		-145.933 **
		(71.460)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)7		2160.088 ****
		(71.855)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)8		-515.379 ****
		(75.125)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)9		452.093 ****
		(85.368)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)10		-209.867 **
		(81.457)
bs(Day, knots = BREAKS)11		583.000 ****
		(80.978)
ar1			0.237
			(0.106)
ar2			-0.841
			(0.088)
ar3			-0.127
			(0.107)
ar4			-0.413
			(0.047)
ar5			-0.448
			(0.055)
ma1			-0.945
			(0.110)
ma2			1.038
			(0.162)
ma3			-0.456
			(0.149)
ma4			0.366
			(0.093)
Day				4.497 ****
				(0.419)
I(Day^2)				-0.008 ****
				(0.001)
fitf					-2.984	-0.187
					(2.954)	(0.127)
fit0f					-1.405	-0.153
					(1.356)	(0.234)
fit1f					2.360	0.755 ****
					(2.923)	(0.146)
fitpif					1.050	0.131
					(0.945)	(0.235)
fitaf					-0.253	0.440 ****
					(1.880)	(0.065)
fitf:fit0f					-0.029
					(0.021)
fitf:fit1f					0.002
					(0.004)
fit0f:fit1f					0.040
					(0.028)
fitf:fitpif					0.053 *
					(0.030)
fit0f:fitpif					0.001
					(0.001)
fit1f:fitpif					-0.051
					(0.036)
fitf:fitaf					0.002
					(0.021)
fit0f:fitaf					0.007
					(0.013)
fit1f:fitaf					0.005
					(0.016)
fitpif:fitaf					-0.009
					(0.018)
fitf:fit0f:fit1f					-0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fit0f:fitpif					-0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fit1f:fitpif					0.000
					(0.000)
fit0f:fit1f:fitpif					0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fit0f:fitaf					0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fit1f:fitaf					-0.000
					(0.000)
fit0f:fit1f:fitaf					-0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fitpif:fitaf					-0.000
					(0.000)
fit0f:fitpif:fitaf					0.000
					(0.000)
fit1f:fitpif:fitaf					0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fit0f:fit1f:fitpif					0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fit0f:fit1f:fitaf					0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fit0f:fitpif:fitaf					0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fit1f:fitpif:fitaf					0.000
					(0.000)
fit0f:fit1f:fitpif:fitaf					-0.000
					(0.000)
fitf:fit0f:fit1f:fitpif:fitaf					-0.000
					(0.000)
nobs	521	521	520	521	521	521
r.squared	0.189	0.863		0.186	0.901	0.894
adj.r.squared	0.185	0.860		0.182	0.894	0.893
sigma	358.640	148.456	140.204	359.137	129.184	130.062
statistic	40.269	292.116		59.021	142.799	866.924
p.value	0.000	0.000		0.000	0.000	0.000
df	3.000	11.000		2.000	31.000	5.000
logLik	-3801.948	-3338.349	-3304.902	-3803.173	-3255.458	-3272.483
AIC	7613.895	6702.698	6629.804	7614.346	6576.916	6558.966
BIC	7635.174	6758.022	6672.342	7631.369	6717.355	6588.756
deviance	66497947.233	11218017.844		66811506.045	8160628.858	8711782.329
df.residual	517.000	509.000		518.000	489.000	515.000
nobs.1	521.000	521.000	520.000	521.000	521.000	521.000
**** p < 0.001; *** p < 0.01; ** p < 0.05; * p < 0.1.

	Spline with knots	Spline without knots	Smooth spline	ARIMA	Quardratic polynomial	Essembled equal weight	Essembled on weight	Essembled summed weight	Essembled weight of fit
Absolute Error	45000	140000	39000	42000	130000	180000	37000	38000	180000
Absolute Percent Error	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf
Accuracy	0	0	0	0	0	0.035	0	0	0.035
Adjusted R Square	0.86	0.18	0	0	0.18	0	0.89	0.89	0
Akaike’s Information Criterion AIC	6700	7600	0	6600	7600	0	6600	6600	0
Allen’s Prediction Sum-Of-Squares (PRESS, P-Square)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Area under the ROC curve (AUC)	0.0087	0.04	0.0087	0.02	0.0087	0.0087	0.076	0.0096	0.0087
Average Precision at k	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0	0	0.5
Bias	0.0000000000000012	-0.000000000000036	0.00000000000011	2.5	0.000000000000042	340	-0.00000000000000054	-0.0000000000000015	340
Brier score	20000	100000	20000	20000	100000	300000	20000	20000	NaN
Classification Error	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
F1 Score	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
fScore	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
GINI Coefficient	1	0.6	1	1	0.5	0.9	1	1	0.9
kappa statistic	0	0	0	0	0	NaN	0	0	NaN
Log Loss	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf
Mallow’s cp	12	4	0	0	3	0	0	6	0
Matthews Correlation Coefficient	0	0	0	0	0	NaN	0	0	NaN
Mean Log Loss	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	NaN	Inf	Inf	NaN
Mean Absolute Error	87	260	74	81	260	340	70	72	NaN
Mean Absolute Percent Error	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf	Inf
Mean Average Precision at k	0	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mean Absolute Scaled Error	0.89	2.7	0.76	0.84	2.6	3.5	0.72	0.74	3.5
Median Absolute Error	51	220	34	42	210	98	37	35	130
Mean Squared Error	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	270000	NA	NA	NaN
Mean Squared Log Error	NaN	NaN	0.28	0.28	NaN	28	NaN	NaN	28
Model turning point error	253	265	248	296	264	281	234	282	275
Negative Predictive Value	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Percent Bias	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	-Inf	NaN	NaN
Positive Predictive Value	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Precision	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	0	NaN	NaN	0
R Square	0.86	0.19	0	0	0.19	0	0.9	0.89	0
Relative Absolute Error	0.3	0.9	0.26	0.28	0.89	0.44	0.24	0.25	0.6
Recall	-2.9	10	-0.18	0.45	-47	0	17	-1.6	0
Root Mean Squared Error	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	520	NA	NA	NaN
Root Mean Squared Log Error	NaN	NaN	0.53	0.53	NaN	5.3	NaN	NaN	5.3
Root Relative Squared Error	0.37	0.9	0.34	0.35	0.9	1.3	0.32	0.33	1.3
Relative Squared Error	0.14	0.81	0.12	0.12	0.81	1.7	0.099	0.11	1.7
Schwarz’s Bayesian criterion BIC	6800	7600	0	6700	7600	0	6700	6600	0
Sensitivity	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0	0	0.5
specificity	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Squared Error	11000000	66000000	9600000	10000000	67000000	140000000	8200000	8700000	140000000
Squared Log Error	NaN	NaN	150	150	NaN	14000	NaN	NaN	14000
Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error	0.49	0.93	0.35	0.41	0.89	0.59	0.41	0.36	0.71
Sum of Squared Errors	11000000	66000000	9600000	10000000	67000000	140000000	8200000	8700000	140000000
True negative rate	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
True positive rate	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

	Linear	Semilog	Growth
(Intercept)	309.718 ****	-61.807	4.679 ****
	(34.859)	(93.889)	(0.140)
Day	0.105		0.001 ***
	(0.116)		(0.000)
log(Day)		75.814 ****
		(17.539)
nobs	521	521	521
r.squared	0.002	0.035	0.013
adj.r.squared	-0.000	0.033	0.011
sigma	397.258	390.607	1.601
statistic	0.830	18.685	6.910
p.value	0.363	0.000	0.009
df	1.000	1.000	1.000
logLik	-3856.235	-3847.437	-983.504
AIC	7718.469	7700.875	1973.009
BIC	7731.236	7713.642	1985.776
deviance	81905514.761	79185735.475	1330.515
df.residual	519.000	519.000	519.000
nobs.1	521.000	521.000	521.000
**** p < 0.001; *** p < 0.01; ** p < 0.05; * p < 0.1.